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Telangana Assembly Elections 2023 Exit Poll Analysis - Political Metrics
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Telangana Assembly Elections 2023 Exit Poll Analysis


Telangana Assembly Elections 2023 Exit Poll Analysis

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Exit Poll Results: 

Exit Poll Analysis : 

The Congress party is anticipated to emerge as the leading contender in the Telangana assembly elections, projecting an expected range of 65-70 seats with a corresponding vote share of 43%. This assessment factors in the strike rate observed across various regions within the Telangana state. Following closely, the BRS is poised to secure the second position, with an expected seat range of 31-37 and a corresponding vote share of 37%. The BJP is anticipated to secure 8-12 seats, accompanied by a vote share of 13%. The MIM is projected to secure 6 seats, while other parties like BSP & CPI are expected to garner 2 seats.

The Congress party has demonstrated strategic campaign management led by the Sunil Kanugolu team, building on the success achieved in the Karnataka Elections. Skillfully addressing the anti-incumbency sentiment, the Congress Party has effectively competed with the BJP Party. A significant portion of the Muslim, OBC, and Schedule Caste vote share has shifted towards the Congress party, reflecting a subtle dissatisfaction with the nine-year rule of the KCR government.

The BRS Party encountered challenges in mitigating the anti-incumbency factor, primarily attributed to dissatisfactions among unemployed individuals, government employees, and a notable surge in the BJP’s vote share. Despite successfully implementing welfare programs such as Rythu Bandhu, Shaadi Mubarak, Kalyana Lakshmi, and pensions, the party faced difficulties in sustaining its previous successes, largely stemming from significant discontentment directed towards 25-30 MLAs. The prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment against the MLAs overshadowed any pro-incumbency sentiments towards KCR.

The BJP Party is anticipated to secure 8-12 seats, with an expected vote share of 13%, showcasing notable performance in the old districts of Karimnagar, Adilabad, and Nizamabad. The party achieved success in two by-elections in Dubbaka and Huzurabad and performed well in the Hyderabad municipal elections. However, the momentum was not sustained due to several factors, including the alleged power struggle between Etela Rajender and the removed state president, Bandi Sanjay, leaders departing from the party, and alleged secret affiliations between the BRS and BJP.

MIM is expected to maintain its stronghold in the Hyderabad region by securing 6 seats based on its historical performance. The BSP party, under the state leadership of RS Praveen Kumar, is expected to emerge victorious in the Sirpur Kagaznagar assembly segment, while CPI is anticipated to secure one seat.